Travel in the Time of COVID
Written by David - December 10, 2020
2020 will go down as a year that none of us will ever forget.
In addition to all of the other ways it has devastated the world, COVID-19 has wreaked havoc on the travel and tourism industry. Many large airlines, hotels, and tour companies are either in bankruptcy or have ceased operations completely. Local economies, especially in developing countries, that depended on tourism have been ruined.
However, I remain optimistic that travel will rebound
- and it will come back sooner than we think.
The most common question I get asked is “When will it be safe to travel again?”
This is a personal question that doesn’t have the same answer for everyone, as each person’s circumstances are unique and destinations’ restrictions vary. Our purpose is to provide you with information and advice, to help you make an informed decision.
There are many countries in the world where COVID has already been either contained or eliminated completely. Some of these countries are open to travelers now, although many come with a requirement for a negative COVID test on arrival, and/or proof of a negative test right before departure.
Canada, while not the worst country when it comes to containing COVID, is certainly not the best either. While we are still grappling with it here, the biggest impediment to travel right now for Canadians is the 14-day quarantine imposed upon all travelers arriving into Canada (regardless of where they arrived from). This quarantine is mandatory for everyone, including Canadian citizens returning home.
Currently, this mandatory quarantine period is set to expire on January 21st, however it can be extended by the government, as it has in previous months. What we are hopeful for, is that we can take the next step and change it from a blanket quarantine on all arrivals, to a targeted one, in which arrivals from certain countries with high numbers of active cases still require quarantine, but arrivals from other countries with low case numbers are allowed to enter with reduced or eliminated quarantine.
Alternatively, we would hope to see arrivals permitted with negative quarantine tests, which has been adopted by many countries around the world. However, to get there we still need to get our own number of cases here under control.
Which brings us to the vaccine.
Based on statements from the government, the first batches of vaccine are expected to arrive in Canada at the end of December or beginning of January. They will be distributed to high-priority individuals first, such as medical personnel and first responders, as well as high risk patients and the elderly. From there the vaccine will be rolled out to the rest of the country as more doses arrive.
According to Trudeau, all Canadians who want a vaccine will have the opportunity to get it by the end of September 2021, if things remain on schedule.
How does this affect our quarantine rules?
In a nutshell, the restrictions will be lifted or modified when the risk to Canadians is minimized or eliminated.
With the administration of the vaccine to the most vulnerable first, the first date to keep an eye on is March 21st. At that point, it is expected that around 8% of the population of Canada will have received at least their first dose of the vaccine (most of the vaccines being produced require two doses a few weeks apart). We can expect that most of the vaccine will be sent to hospitals to be given to symptomatic patients, residents of long term care homes, and medical personnel. Canadians aged 80 and up have accounted for roughly two-thirds of the COVID deaths so far, but make up only about 4% of the population; so it is reasonable to expect that our death rate and hospitalization rate from COVID will plunge as we move through February and March and many people get vaccinated.
March 21st will also be two months into Joe Biden’s presidency. He has promised his first priority will be to get COVID under control in America, and as their neighbour to the North, the situation in America affects us greatly. Two months is a good timeframe to see the effect of any immediate measures Biden takes, and combined with vaccinations in the USA, we should see their case counts plunging at this time too.
The Canadian government will also face increased pressure from the Canadian tourism industry to reopen the country, as April is typically the start of our tourism season for international travellers, with peak arrivals beginning in mid June.
Our local tourism markets were hit extremely hard in the summer of 2020 and will be looking to rebound in 2021. This pressure, combined with rapidly dropping case numbers, will likely result in the easement of restrictions within Canada.
I think March or April is when we see measures such as variation in quarantine rules based on country of origin, and/or negative test results upon entry, allowing some travellers to arrive in Canada without having to quarantine.
Based on the timeframes provided by the government, it seems that by the end of June, roughly half of Canadians will be vaccinated, and a majority of Americans will be too. Although this prediction is less certain, I would expect that the border closure with the USA will last until June 21st at the latest. At that point the risk of spreading the virus would be much lower, and Canada could require that any arrivals at that point simply provide proof they have been vaccinated.
As with all predictions with COVID, there are still a lot of unknown factors that area at play, and so much can change between now and then, either for better or for worse. But, these predictions I have made are based on the information available now, and the plans that have been published by both the government of Canada and other countries around the world.
So all of that being said, what does this mean for those of us wanting to book travel?
I would suggest that March is the time to seriously consider booking travel for June and beyond. Any travel earlier than that is likely to carry additional risks or complications. But of course, so much varies depending on your destination and your personal situation, which is why we always recommend consulting with a professional before booking.
Additionally, it’s worth considering how flexible the travel product you want to purchase is. Some suppliers are incredibly flexible and require very little deposit to lock in your space or price, as well as flexibility to change the date - so if you see a good deal that’s far enough in the future, it may be worthwhile to book it now and snag a great deal.
We at Wanderlust Concierge here to guide you every step of the way,
and to ensure that you are booking travel that you can feel secure and comfortable with.
This is why you have us as a travel concierge.
